Dealing with the Real Estate “They-Sayers”

They say you can’t keep a good man down.  They also say the only sure thing is death and taxes, that if you can’t stand the heat stay out of the kitchen, two wrongs don’t make a right and diamonds are a girl’s best friend.

What I want to know is who the hell are “they”?  Because “they” sure say a lot of stupid things.

I’m heading down to Rocky Point, Mexico today for three days on the beach with family and friends.  A few very caring people I know are worried about us, and all the violence that is supposedly occurring south of the border.  “They” say tourists are getting shot in broad daylight.  “They” also say drug cartels are running rampant through the streets of this small fishing village three hours south of Phoenix.

Sounds scary.  It if were true.  I’ve been down to Rocky Point twice in the last 18 months and I feel safer there than I do driving through south central Phoenix.

But you don’t have to take my word for it.  Google “Rocky Point Mexico Violence 2011” and see if you can find one credible news organization that has reported any recent negative news.  There hasn’t been a single incident down there since August of 2009.  Now, Google “Phoenix Arizona Violence 2011” and see what pops up.

“They” also say a lot of dribble about the Phoenix housing market.  It’s a buyer’s market.  It’s a seller’s market.  It’s an investor’s market.  There are great deals to be found.  There aren’t any good deals.  Foreclosures are on the rise.  Foreclosures are decreasing.  And around and around it goes.

Rather than pay attention to the real estate “they-sayers” I prefer to trust my instincts, and listen to guys like Tom Ruff of Information Market and Mike Orr of Cromford Report.  Here’s what Mike had to say on September 15^th:

“There have been several media stories making a big deal about increased foreclosure numbers in August. Outside Arizona, and especially in judicial foreclosure states, these may have had some significance. Inside Maricopa County, they seem to have no significance at all. The rise in completed foreclosures from July to August was small at 8% and less than the 15% increase in the number of days that the calendar gave the trustees to work. There was a noticeable rise in foreclosure notices issued by Recontrust, the company that handles the notices for Bank of America. However the notices for other trustees were at roughly the same level as July and substantially down from 2010. The underlying downward trend is reinforced by the month to date numbers for September. We are projecting about 4,500 new foreclosure notices during September, a drop of some 16% from August and about 2,850 trustee sales, a drop of about 21%. Part of the drop is because September has 9% fewer working days (21) than August (23). Nevertheless it still looks like the foreclosure tide is on its way out, and the inventory of bank owned homes continues to fall, as does the count of pending foreclosures.”

The lesson here is whenever you hear someone say “Well you know they say…” politely nod your head and change the subject.  Maybe you can talk about Mexico.  “They” say it’s beautiful down there this time of year.